Kazakhstan is going back to the point where it was in January 2022. Vladimir Putin is going to meet Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev to see whether the US has taken roots in the republic.
Vladimir Putin is visiting Kazakhstan on November 9, the administration of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said. Russia confirms that the two presidents will attend the Forum of Interregional Cooperation between Kazakhstan and Russia.
This is not the main goal of Putin's visit to the former Soviet republic, though. It appears that Putin decided to personally sort out contradictory signals coming from his ally in the EAEU and the CSTO. Is Kazakhstan a Russia-loyal sate or is it not a friend of Russia anymore?
US Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu is in Kazakhstan. This is his third visit to the Central Asian nation in the last two years. Other American officials, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have also visited Kazakhstan during these years. There were even whole commissions of US officials who wanted to verify Kazakhstan's compliance with anti-Russian sanctions.
The goal of the USA's presence in Kazakhstan is to alienate the post-Soviet country from the Russian Federation in cultural, emotional, economic, and political terms.
The USA is using its soft power in Kazakh media exploiting opinions of "grant eaters”;
US Embassy officials brief Kazakh journalists trying to get advantage of such issues as Kazakh nationalism, Russophobia, and the opposition of Russian Kazakhs to ethnic Kazakhs.
A number of events that have recently made headlines in Kazakh media suggest that Kazakhstan is losing its loyalty to Russia:
When visiting the United States in September, Kazakh President Tokayev announced giving additional impetus to building strategic cooperation between the two countries.
"We have very good and reliable long-term partnerships in such strategically important areas as security, energy, trade and investment. Therefore, we are ready to further develop this cooperation. Taking this opportunity, I would like to express our gratitude to the United States for the lasting and strong support for our independence, territorial integrity and sovereignty,” Tokayev said.
Russia needs to react. As part of the Transport Forum of the SCO countries, an agreement was signed on the construction of the transport Southern Corridor bypassing Kazakhstan: Russia — Caspian Sea — Turkmenistan — Uzbekistan — Kyrgyzstan.
Russia needs to understand that providing Kazakhstan with cheap electricity, grain, gasoline and diesel fuel may not win loyalty. On the contrary, Kazakhstan may become another Ukraine with the help of Russia's money.
A French journalist asked Tokayev: "Do you think that Russia made a mistake by attacking Ukraine?”
Tokayev's tricky answer was as follows:
"I'm not a prophet. History will bring down its verdict later."
History will bring down its verdict on Tokayev later too. USA's "soft power" does not come alone — it brings colour revolutions. Tokayev could see it for himself in January 2020. Will Putin save him again?