Western media started writing about the stalemate situation in Ukraine, as well as about the imminent negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv. Negotiating peace is a necessary process, but what option does Russia need?
The West did not want Ukraine to win from the very beginning of the special military operation. Western media indulge themselves in discussing the topic of a stalemate situation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Onet, a Polish publication, said that the West did not rely on Kyiv's unconditional victory from the very beginning of the Ukrainian conflict. The West is aware of Russia's nuclear potential and it wants Moscow to save face in the conflict when it draws to an end.
According to the authors of the article, the current "deadlock situation” on the front line is advantageous for Western powers, whereas Kyiv's demands for the return of territories to the 1991 borders appear to be an extremely unrealistic solution.
"Continuing the war makes no sense now for both Moscow and Kyiv,” the author concludes.
The question that the West is now interested in is how to stop Russia from starting a "new war," the author added.
Western media propose to "freeze” the conflict along the line of military contact. They consider several peace scenarios, similar to the past conflicts in the Koreas, Cyprus and Kashmir. Those scenarios are essentially identical: hostilities may resume again as no peace treaty is going to be signed.
The goal is obvious — to make what remains of Ukraine "a strong state with a strong army” and determine security guarantees and military assistance to the pro-Western regime.
For Russia, this means a potentially endless war.
There is a massive information campaign being conducted to talk Ukrainian President Zelensky into accepting such an option. Such a move will imply political, and perhaps physical death for Zelensky. This is why Zelensky is now "angry,” as a controversial Time article said. Zelensky (or his successor) will certainly be persuaded because the West will cut its support for Ukraine. Without it, Ukraine will lose, as Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin clearly put it.
As for Moscow, the West assumes that it will accept this version of "peace”, since the Russian Armed Forces do not have enough strength to reach the Polish border. Allegedly, Putin's only option is to prolong the conflict in a hope that Donald Trump will win the presidential election next year. In this case, it is believed, Russia will be able to negotiate better truce terms. It is not ruled out that the US will lift certain sanctions from Russia.
Russian security can be guaranteed only if the USA becomes weaker than today. This is what Putin is expecting from the upcoming presidential vote in the United States. Any of the losing side will not recognise the election and this will trigger a long-term political and economic crisis within the United States.
Therefore, Putin will not rush to conclude unfavorable truce agreements. He will rather wait, trying to carry out the special operation with minimal losses, ensuring the loyalty of former citizens of Ukraine.
It appears that the future of the former Ukraine (within the territorial framework that Putin deems necessary) will be based on its membership in the Union State with Russia and Belarus.