The question of the financial and military support for Kyiv is one of the key aspects to predict the further development of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Many in Russia believe that without the support of the West, the special operation in Ukraine would have been completed a lot earlier. The West essentially prolongs conflicts by providing arms to other countries. Ukraine continues to receive military aid packages, including banned weapons such as cluster munitions and depleted uranium projectiles.
Pravda.Ru turned to experts to find out under what circumstances the West may stop helping Kyiv.
What advanced weapons does the West transfer to Ukraine?
Andrey Koshkin, military expert, head of the department of political analysis of the Russian University of Economics named after Plekhanov:
"The USA has made a military laboratory out of Ukraine. Of course, the Americans are testing their technologies and practice to coordinate their efforts there, and so on. As for most advanced weapons…Javelins, anti-tank missiles — they are advanced weapons. There are also Stinger missiles. They used to be supplied to Mujahideens in Afghanistan to counter Soviet aircraft. Today this is a fairly stable MANPADS, a portable anti-missile system… There are also Leopard tanks. Ukraine received Leopard 2A6 tanks, but not many of them — just enough so that they could not dramatically change the balance of forces on the battlefield to Ukraine's advantage," Andrey Koshkin said.
The specialist also drew attention to the missiles, which, in his opinion, can be attributed to advanced weapons.
"Let's also mention the long-range Storm Shadow missiles. This is the Anglo-French missile, which is listed as Storm Shadow in the UK and as SCALP in France. They are more modern missiles that can fly at a height of 30-40 meters from the earth's surface and carry a more voluminous combat potential. These missiles are more than just capable of prolonging the conflict, that is, attacking Russia. At the same time, Western countries want to get rid of their old weapons and test something new. This is what Poland does with its Krab howitzers," Koshkin added.
Does the West intend to keep up the pace of its support for Ukraine?
Andrey Koshkin:
"The USA does not want the military support to weaken. This process is not linear. It has an amplitude of fluctuations. They gather for their summits in Vilnius and elsewhere to coordinate and adjust their efforts to continue arms supplies. If they stop doing it, the Kyiv regime will not be able to exist, and the real phase of the conflict will end," he said.
Anatoly Gagarin, political scientist, head of the Expert Club of the Sverdlovsk Region:
"I think that it's all being reset right now. Russia is not using cluster bombs in response, but Russia may indeed use similar and even more powerful weapons to make Ukraine's offensive even more miserable," the expert noted.
Does the West risk its own defense potential by supplying weapons to Ukraine?
Anatoly Gagarin, political scientist, head of the Expert Club of the Sverdlovsk Region:
"They are emptying their arsenals. They have not rebuilt their defence factories yet, but this is apparently going to happen. They are going to take it all to the assembly line to make new weapons that will be delivered to Ukraine. I would not be so romantically optimistic today, because Ukraine is a source of profit for the defence complex of the West," he said.
Under what conditions will the West be willing to cease its military support?
Andrey Koshkin:
"One needs to distinguish here between weakening the support and ending it. They can not weaken it, because the United States of America is watching them. They need to supply as much as the USA tells them to for the conflict to go on. It is impossible to stop the conflict completely. The United States of America has been losing its dominating positions lately. Washington wants to destroy Russia and isolate China," Koshkin said.
Anatoly Gagarin:
"I think that there are no such plans so far. The key here is the total failure of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Yet, we do not see it happening either. Currently, we are witnessing a situation of some sort of expectation. Representatives of our armed forces who are deeply familiar with the military situation say that the situation is going to change in Russia's favour in August," the expert concluded.