Alexander Lukashenko does not hide the fact that he is not going to surrender his power on his own accord. Moreover, he wants everyone to know that. Experts believe that there is practically nothing to oppose to Lukashenko's confidence in the right for Belarus.
As Gleb Kuznetsov noted in PolitForum Telegram channel:
"One may hear a lot that Lukashenka is confused, scared, inadequate, looks into the future with horror, that he lost his mind, etc. As I believe, this is not even wishful thinking, but some strange misunderstanding of the nature of power as such, as well as the people for whom power is super valuable."
Lukashenko is quite straightforward and rational. To top it off, he is honest and positions himself as a "peasant." He is a type of a well-to-do peasant, who will crush anyone who will date to take his property away from him.
Generally speaking, Lukashenko translates one very clear idea. He will give up power only after he dies. He is strongly convinced that he should stay in power: the old leader sees no one around, who could take his place from the point of view devotion to power, professionalism and life experience.
According to Kuznetsov, this is Lukashenko's rational approach to his own situation.
In fact, no one needs Belarus. The West does not show much interest in what is happening being too much preoccupied with the coronavirus pandemic and ensuing economic problems. It appears that no one cares about Belarus, but Russia.
Therefore, Lukashenko logically chose Putin as his lawyer, who talks to people like Merkel and Macron about his fate before the EU issues a memorandum on civil society in his support. Yet, this memorandum is not even worth the paper it is printed on.
Interestingly, Lukashenko does not conduct any negotiations with those people, nor does he hold any obligations before them. In a nutshell, he can quickly blame Russia as soon as he wants to.
At the same time, Lukashenko would be extremely happy if Russian troops entered Belarus. Indeed, why waste your money, when there someone else's money to spare.
"He did not need to arrange any anti-NATO provocations on the border with Poland. Army officers had to be removed from their usual surroundings. Otherwise, God forbid, they would suddenly start listening to the street," the expert believes.
One needs to understand that Lukashenka will take revenge on everyone who dares to attack him.
As for the opponents, it was enough to let Tikhanovskaya go to people who think and act in an extremely stereotyped manner and have an extremely vague knowledge of Belarus. As a result, Tikhanovskaya is now abroad and her advisers that she has there will only play into Lukashenko's hand.
"Lukashenko will win. He will retain power by the force of power. A revolution is productive when people are ready to kill, rather than take off their shoes, protesting on a bench."
Russia and Belarus will be together simply because Lukashenko needs Russia both as moral support, and as a potential force, as a source of finance, as a loyal creditor. Most of all, Lukashenko needs Russia so that the West imposes more sanctions on Russia, rather than Belarus.
Belarus is Lukashenko's country until his death. Simple decisions, opportunism transformed into principle, an iron will to power, total absence of moral restrictions, "you die today, and I will die tomorrow", cruelty mastermind the most effective strategy.