Four parliamentary parties in Ukraine nominated candidates for the presidential election. Not all of these candidates are registered, but they are the most likely contenders. The Russian Federation was in a difficult situation. On the one hand, it is clear that the elections are illegitimate, on the other hand, it will be necessary to establish relationship with the new president.
Recognizing the election as illegitimate, Russia still needs to establish relationship with the new president and the government. The following questions are important for Russia: who is funding the campaign of a presidential candidate? How does this person see the relationship with Russia? What is their position on Crimea? Who will be able to curb the radicals?
Yulia Tymoshenko is a candidate from the "Fatherland." She took the initiative not to spend much money on the campaign. "The "Fatherland" has people who have their own businesses, resources, well-developed regional structure, so the party will have no problems with financing," told Pravda.Ru the director of the Kiev Agency for Modeling Situations, a political analyst Vitaly Bala. Today, de facto the "Fatherland" is at the steering wheel because Turchynov, Yatsenyuk, and Avakov are members of the party. However, this does not mean that Tymoshenko will win, on the contrary, if Avakov loses the war to the "Right Sector," it will play against Tymoshenko.
The "Orange Lady" is aggressive towards Russia. "In the current circumstances it is necessary to integrate into the Western defense alliance, but at the same time, Ukraine is to continue to build an effective army. If the people elect me president, I will not give up without a fight and will not give up an inch of the Ukrainian land," said Tymoshenko. She called the Russian demands on non-aligned status of Ukraine and the federalization of the country "a recipe for neocolonialism." She believes it to be a direct path towards the destruction of the independence and sovereignty of Ukraine and other former Soviet countries," said Tymoshenko. However, she has one serious "flaw" - the West does not support her, calling her a "politician of the past."
The Congress of the Ukrainian "Party of Regions" has proposed the former governor of the Kharkiv region Mikhail Dobkin as a presidential candidate. Oleg Tsarev dropped out of the race (he was excessively pro-Russian) and Sergei Tihipko allegedly did not agree with the sponsors.
"Dobkin is not a poor man, he's officially a millionaire. His candidacy was proposed and supported by the "Party of Regions" that has enough wealthy people, including Ukraine's richest man Rinat Akhmetov. I do not think they will have problems with the financing," told Pravda.Ru Vitaly Bala. In his keynote speech at the congress Dobkin spoke about federalization of Ukraine and cooperation with the Customs Union. Later he was corrected by his fellow party members and now his official statement on the site of his "Party of Regions" speaks of the country's unitary form.
Speaking about Crimea, Dobkin said that Ukraine had to win over the hearts and minds of the residents of the peninsula, and then they will want to return to Ukraine. However, Dobkin was charged with incitement to separatism, is currently under house arrest, and may at any time be stripped off the opportunity to participate in the elections.
The candidate from "Udar" is a prominent businessman Poroshenko. Poroshenko and his party "Solidarity" gained about one percent of the vote in the last election, and now he is the main contender for the win. Vitali Klitschko also showed his inability to competently conduct a political campaign, and the creators of the Party, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, have likely advised him to give way to the oligarch. This step is not unexpected and is based on the point of view of the Germans.
"The campaign will be funded exclusively with my own money. I paid all taxes in full," said Poroshenko. However, according to Vitaly Bala, financial advisors of a Ukrainian oligarch Dmitry Firtash also participate in the election campaign. The "Chocolate Lord" is truly wealthy. His fortune is estimated at $1.8 billion. He owns a chocolate factory "Roshen," car factories, shipyards and private television station Channel 5. However, his political swings from Kuchma to Yushchenko (he funded the Orange Revolution and was a minister in the government), and then to Yanukovych (he is a co-founder of the Party of Regions, was a minister in the government) say that he is opportunistic.
"Ukraine will not be able to quickly free and regain control of Crimea," said Poroshenko. "We need to use all measures. On the one hand, the sanctions by our international partners, on the other, firm position of Ukrainians and economic success. When residents of Ukraine demonstrate that they live much happier than residents of Crimea, I am sure that the Crimeans will be disappointed." It is an amazing coincidence with Dobkin's opinion. Poroshenko distanced himself from the extreme right, which is not surprising given that he is an active parishioner of one of the parishes of the Moscow Patriarchate.
The neo-Nazi party "Freedom" nominated Oleg Tyagnibok that his supporters call the only candidate from the Maidan. He as a sponsor, an oligarch and a member of the Parliament Igor Krivetsky, but his chances of winning are minimal. He is well aware of that. Otherwise, why would he welcome the alliance of Poroshenko and Klitschko? "We definitely support any integration processes that occur in the environment of the former opposition and the current government. We can only win together," said Tyagnibok. He may even withdraw his candidacy after registration.
"Today, the leaders of the presidential race are Poroshenko and Tymoshenko. But we cannot say yet who will win because of the emotional background in the country," told Pravda.Ru Vitaly Bala. "Any action can change the situation. This is evident by the change in the ratings of Klitschko and Poroshenko. They were completely reversed, and there has been a change in leaders. The most important thing is in the east 40 percent are still undecided whether they will participate in the elections. If they do, it will make significant adjustments to the results. It is interesting who will take third place, Tigipko or Dobkin. All candidates have approximately the same position regarding Russia - you give us Crimea back, we will engage in a dialogue. There is Dobkin who speaks about federalization and favors entry into the Customs Union. I wonder how many people will vote for him, and, hence, for the annexation of Crimea. He would be the best candidate for Russia. Crimea is a wound that will keep us separated for a long time."
What do we have to work with? The pro-Western opposition tycoon and "orange princess" who emphasizes the militant rhetoric and has a reputation of the person who you can negotiate with? None of these candidates will meet the expectations of the Maidan. This is why the election in 2014 will not be the end of the Ukrainian coup, but its new stage. Another question is whether the "Right Sector" will let the election take place.
Lyuba Lulko
Pravda.Ru