Here we are a week after the Week That Was and our Controlled Media has yet to figure it all out.
To their credit, the TARD Class (Televised Anchors Reading Dispatches) seem to know something doesn’t add up…but they aren’t of sufficient mentality to put two and two together.
Allow me to crib their craniums.
As Franklin Roosevelt used to say, “Nothing is by accident in Politics; if it happens it is because someone meant it to happen.”
Speaking of which, given recent events we should begin by defining terms for the TARDs among us:
(Note: An Uprising is similar to an Insurrection in purpose and scope yet linguistically it is more indicative of a popular agitation as opposed to that occurring by those already having state power; i.e. an action led or composed of ordinary soldiers or unremarkable peasants.)
What was the classification of the activities untaken by the Wagner Group and its leader Prigozhin?
My thesis is None Of The Above.
In the time honored tradition of “showing your homework” to the TARDs, below will be the timeline of suspicion leading to developments and culminating with prognostication.
PAST – Why I Suspected
First and foremost, the dutiful Reader (my favorite sort), will recall Yours Truly published a piece (Hat Tip to Estimable Editor Sudakov) in which I posited the whole “Drama Queen” nonsense of the past several months was merely a put-on to fool Western Powers.
The main justification for this belief was such antics were all so very un-Russian in tone.
Something seemed foul; ergo the theory it was to entice overconfidence in the Kiev Cabal of Ukraine under King Zelensky.
To a certain extent this seems to have been accurate.
PRESENT, LAST WEEK – How I Was Right
Last week a few things tipped observant watchers that The Happening was…er, happening.
One, late in the week “somebody” placed a tremendous options order on the stock market that the VIX (a general indicator of volatility) was about to go wild; everybody had a good laugh…except those who remembered similar options trades right before the 9/11 Attacks.
So while I didn’t know WHAT was about to occur, I knew SOMETHING was about to occur.
Two, a day later the Russian Government released a statement reading in effect whatever Citizens heard over the next few days it was all propaganda and to remain calm while paying no attention to matters.
Well, I must say, that narrowed things down considerably. Even not knowing the WHAT it was clear the WHEN was sometime during the weekend and the WHERE was either in Russia itself or very nearby.
Of course, then the Happening occurred.
PRESENT, LAST WEEKEND – I Don’t Guess
So hopefully this establishes a few things: my prior article was based on knowing how Russians behave, my inclination of an imminent Happening was based on very unusual stock market trades, and the location deduced by an obscure Press Release by the Russian Government itself.
Okay, so then Prigozhin makes his move…or so it appeared….
Since this can all become a little confusing, with prevarications layered upon obfuscations, I’m going to have to do some enumeration within numbering which will make things clearer…so bear with me…
ONE: RATIONALE: It was claimed by TARDs that Prigozhin began his march following an air strike by the Russian Ministry of Defense itself on his men in which 2,000 soldiers were killed. Seeing the video, it certainly doesn’t appear that way. (It’s gruesome so don’t view unless you can stomach such images.)
From what I could discern it was basically limited forest fires and some body parts strewn around. This is unpleasant but it certainly doesn’t match with a massacre of 2,000 men a la Vietnam Carpet Bombing.
Could the video or the event be real? Maybe. I’ve seen real things that looked staged and staged things that looked real, so anything is possible. What I can say is the evidence, such as exists, is indeterminate.
On balance the entire footage seemed like a causes belli rather than an actual documentation of horror.
TWO: HOW MANY: It was initially reported by breathless TARDs Prigozhin went to Rostov-on-Don with his whole army of 25,000 men ready for battle with The Powers That Be.
Except…since then some sources have claimed there were only 2,500 men involved in the march. This would seem to track with available footage. Everything I have seen or was sent to me from Russia proper is random stock of one or two tanks and groups of dozens of men.
I’ve witnessed larger crowds turn out for a mini-marathon than this sprint north to Moscow.
That having been said, if we allow only 2,500 bodies showed for the Clambake then where was everybody else? Very curious, this case of the Dogs of War which did not bark…
THREE: WHO GOT KILLED: During what TARDs unabashedly call a “Revolution” (sic) there were astoundingly few casualties. These “Mad Russians” who kidnap, torture and murder for the fun of things suddenly turned into docile bunnies off the battlefield…Does this seem logical to anyone?
Admittedly, there are accounts somewhere under 10 aircraft were downed and somewhere under 20 killed in various scuffles. While tragic for any particular family, this is inconsequential as an Insurrection.
There is also the fact as yet we do not know identities of allegedly deceased. Were they even aboard the vehicles? Were they troublemakers the authorities already wanted to rid themselves? Is the term Fragging (deliberate killing of one’s inconvenient own troops) unknown to TARDs these days?
FOUR: WENCE WENT WAGNER: Despite this supposedly furious clash of tempers and personalities in which everyone swore undying enmity towards the other…within a day everybody makes peace, plays nice together, as well as a slew of Pardons granted for all jovial folks involved.
Er…In the history of Politics has this ever occurred before? Maybe at end of the American Civil War, but only following prolonged surrender negotiations. Definitely not after World War One, World War Two or any time since.
And just exactly where did Prigoshyn wind up, incidentally…Oh? Belarus, you say? Barely 140 miles from Kiev? And they’re making him Chief of a Tent City? Full of his old Wagner buddies? Putin even told them to get their sorry behinds over there with their Top Dog, huh?
Wow…that almost sounds less like an expulsion rather than, I don’t know…a redeployment.
Of course we shouldn’t really be concerned unless somebody like a Former Deputy Defense Minister had recently taken a leading role in…wait? What?...Colonel Mizintsev took such a role last month? Well…not to worry…he’s probably merely a low-level…wait? What? “The Butcher of Mariupol”?
It would take a TARD not to see what is coming…
FIVE: WHY WHY WHY: For those who say this is Three Dimensional Chess the only reply is that for those who have a Tic-Tac-Toe Mentality EVERYTHING is Three Dimensional Chess, even when it is only…Chess.
Chess made tactile is Politics; where feints are standard and sacrifices are common.
So for anyone asking why wasn’t Prigozhin merely put on a plane and Wagner shipped off on the railway to Belarus I answer…are you serious? I mean, seriously? Are you SERIOUS?
Had Putin done that it would have immediately sent the United States (who spent another $500 million on Ukraine this week) into DEFCON 5 overnight. All of NATO would have been put on High Alert. There is even some question whether there might have been some mobilization of Western Powers in Poland.
Instead, by “reluctantly” exiling Prigozhin, his Colonel (who, I swear, would give nightmares to Children of the Damned), and 25,000 battle-trained fighters off to Belarus Putin gets his way before anyone else gets wise.
FUTURE – Do TARDs Really Not Understand?
Okay, so here we are in the aftermath of the afterglow…but whither do we go?
For starters, approximately 50% of Western tanks delivered to Kiev have been destroyed. Commander Cosplay somehow justifies this by claiming that’s no problem because the Spring Counteroffensive (which evidently begins sometime in mid-Summer) hasn’t even commenced yet.
As with most things, the Genuis Faction in Kiev appears not to comprehend that is actually WORSE in the sense losing half your forces in an engagement is not nearly as shameful as losing half before a fight.
For another thing, there is the little issue of upcoming elections in the West and those precincts will include the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany.
Naturally this should pose no dilemma except for the tiny incidental largest donors to the Kiev Cabal are…the United States, the United Kingdom and Germany.
Giving superficial review of the public appetite toward more cash for King Zelensky: in the U.S. the civic mood turning decidedly sour on giving more gibs, in the United Kingdom every other week some occupation is on strike with average increase for mortgages year over year an additional 7,000 pounds (nearly 9,000 dollars), while in Germany economic sentiment is worse by the month.
In other words, outlook for any candidate with the audacity to put interests of their own people ahead of Ukrainians is decidedly positive – with result the money spicket is about to be shut off for Kiev.
Just one other, there is the weather. No, not in the Greta Thunberg “we’re all going to die due to pizza ovens” issue of weather. What I mean is the fact there will eventually be another winter. At the same time Russian gas is turned off. Ahead of what most analysts predict will be a Global Recession next year.
All of which equates to the Kremlin being in position to finish off Ukraine from the north in Kiev at the same time it sweeps the south toward Odessa…and this after ONE HALF of new Western weapons have already been wasted.
Which brings us to valid conjecture of whether this makes Putin weaker or stronger as leader.
The TARDs claim weaker, but they’re insufferably dimwitted. I say, Putin is stronger than ever before.
How?
He has consolidated authority. He has given Lukashenko (suffering rumors of ill health and low approval) a domestic win. He has learned who his enemies may be. He has to a certain extent rallied the populace. He has managed a face-saving way to fold Wagner into the regular Russian Army. He has positioned himself for dynamic victory in the coming months if there is indeed a Wagner invasion of Kiev.
On the whole, Putin comes out faring much better than a week ago.
Moreover is the fact Putin did what any effective leader does – made everyone else around him look good, got exactly what he wanted without revealing the result was exactly what he wanted, as well as made the clever decision to sacrifice minor short-term losses in the interest of major long-term gains.
Among the TARDs of the Controlled Media it was a longstanding bon mot Toofy GutBoi was “the smartest guy in the room” despite the fact he was an Affirmative Action Appointee and never uttered a single thing worth remembering by anyone.
Likewise these same TARDs now embark on the only slightly more quixotic apotheosis of Smugly McSenile as “the smartest guy in the room” in spite of near-endless gaffs, misstatements and gloriously inarticulate nonsense he spouts on the regular.
So for elucidation of the TARD-tier amongst us…you know who is the REAL smartest guy in the room?
It’s the fella who is scowling so hard he looks as if he might burst a blood vessel.
Reason? Because the REAL smartest guy in the room is the one surrounded by comparative morons.
Merely consider for a moment – Anyone who has a 150 I.Q. or higher is by definition adrift in a sea of stupidity. The generally accepted “elevated intelligence” of physicians, attorneys and engineers will normally top out around 125 I.Q at best…meaning even the crème de la crème is 1/6 dumber.
Can you even envision? What must it be like to constantly be 15% to 20% ahead in your neuron synapses than the “best and brightest” to say nothing of the ordinary hoi polloi of this world?
So let’s have a look at the faces with whom we are dealing…Obama? Guffawing and shucking and jiving. Biden? Grinning and vacant and self-satisfaction personified.
Lavrov? His face screams, “I avow, if I have to deal with one more idiot I’m putting this cigarette out on his forehead…” Peskov? His glare shouts, “Open your mouth and say something dumb, I dare you, just do it, because before The Almighty I will slap you into next week…” And the President himself?
Putin smiles when he’s out in the wilderness strangling leopards with his bare hands. Otherwise? The poor guy has the visage of one whose days are an endless toil of tolerating the less adroit.
The same way a brilliant Scientist is usually reading a book at a basketball game is how a capable Politician is glowering in his office at committee meetings; both are trying to assimilate to a circumstance they are ill-suited due to intellectual superiority.
Note the man who singularly miserable in any given situation – he’s typically the brightest boy.
(Of course, there is also honorable mention for whimsical Columnists who write articles about what is about to occur three weeks before it happens…LESSON: Read more Pravda, Credit less TARDs.)
While the Controlled Media TARDs are whining ad nauseum somehow Putin is diminished by getting everything he wanted, and Prigozhin is finished despite having his army closer to Kiev than ever and Russia is on the verge of losing the Ukraine Conflict even while the Cosplay Commander has already lost half his shiny new gear – there is a plot afoot and it is well on its way to a remarkable success.
Needless to say, anything can occur in Politics - but from the shape of things to come Moscow has a good chance of being in Kiev by September and wrapping the whole Ukraine in its fiery red fist by December.
Putin has consolidated power. Prigozhin is in position. NATO fell for the ruse. Ukraine is running out of its latest weaponry. The Western Powers have elections in half a dozen nations within sixteen months.
Yet somehow, King Zelensky is on the cusp of victory.
The future is a potential outcome based on current objective reality.
One can either logically assess the plain facts as presented here or go back to watching Controlled Media and its Compensated Prevaricators.
Except, doing that all over again while accepting a false narrative would made you not only willfully ignorant of the world in which you live…but also classify you as little more than a re-TARD.
Guy Somerset writes from somewhere in America