There is nothing more detrimental to intelligent thinking than conventional wisdom.
Any time you hear “everybody” agreeing on something it’s time to take a step back…particularly when “everybody” is on the payroll of Controlled Media.
For weeks leading up to the Glorious Ukraine Anniversary the only exception to the televised mantra “Russia is losing in Ukraine!” has been “Russia already lost in Ukraine!”
Not only is this blatantly false, the fact there is no dissent should tell you the opposite is true.
Fortunately, Pravda.Ru readers have your dutiful Contrarian Correspondent to make the case.
Tanks
First and foremost, King Zelensky ain’t gonna be getting what he was promised.
To be honest, I didn’t call this one. When the whole Tank To-do came about it really seemed…the Allies?...NATO?...the Coalition of the Craven?...the Western Governments, for want of a better term…well, it appeared they were really going to make good on their pledges.
Except that now appears not to be the situation.
Many of the venerated tanks are either in disrepair or unfit to be sent. Some of the nations which promised evidently reconsidered whether they might not want to keep their tanks on stand-by. Others have flatly diminished their offers absent much explanation either way.
Ultimately, it appears Ukraine may only get a quarter of the tanks initially assured.
As for Russia? Analysts claim they are down to 1,800 from 2,927…but sheepishly admit Moscow has another 5,000 waiting in reserve. In sum, the Russians figure to have a force approximately two times the size of their opponent.
Meanwhile, King Zelensky is begging for enough to make a single battalion of around 50 which still might not arrive for months.
Jets
Immediately after pilfering billions for the phantom tank brigade Tsar Zelensky went to work begging for jets, apparently oblivious to how annoying his constant requests – and often demands – seem to the average Citizen of the West trying to pay their heating bills or afford eggs.
Be that as it may, Mr. Combat Cosplay still may not get planes.
Biden replied with an emphatic “No!” and several other European leaders have given the sort of answer you expect to hear from your parents when you ask to visit Disneyland for your birthday, “Well….we’ll see…”
In other words, no jets are coming anytime soon.
This has been allayed to an extent by the ubiquitous training of Ukrainians in nearly every corner of Europe. (One wonders if there would be an Energy Crisis in Great Britain if as much time was spent training Ukrainians to be electricians as pilots.)
While the pundits will tell you different, in the U.K. it takes six years – that’s pronounced YEARS – to learn to fly a Tornado.
Even if we concede there is a certain bureaucratic differential at work given each costs $40 Million to purchase and $45,000 an hour just to operate, it is unlikely there will be many Ukrainian Top Guns zipping around anytime soon.
Generally, the whole “training” exercise seems like a put-off to shut King Camouflage up for a while during which time the adults will attempt to convince him not to try to invade Crimea.
Cluster Bombs
Perhaps nothing is so indicative of the trending views of Western Government as when the Ukraine Gang made a request for Cluster Bombs this past week.
If there is any clearer example of how disassociated these lunatics are from reality who knows what it might be.
Almost every government in the European Union has signed the declaration against such weapons so to specifically go sponging around the Munich Security Conference for them was ridiculous. Worse was rather than admitting to the faux pas when confronted by shock and horror, the Ukrainian delegation had the effrontery to claim it was all cool since they would only be cluster bombing on their own soil.
To the extent there is a tide turning in regard to the constant supplication it might be well to remember this date.
Shells
Except here is the biggest issue Zelensky and his Cronies will be facing in the coming months – they’re not even going to have conventional ammunition to fire.
Specifically, the 155 mm shells are running low.
Figures are all over the map regarding when and if such munitions can be supplied in time for any summer jamborees. By some estimates Ukraine will have completely exhausted their armory within a month.
Even if that is not strictly accurate there is the little fact as of this week it was reported in The Guardian weapons makers had not even received any new orders!
Contrast this with Russia, which is currently on a three-shift schedule to produce such ammunition.
To reiterate: One side is about to run out of shells. One side is producing them non-stop.
So explain to me again how Russia is about to lose a fight in which they will be doing the only firing?
The West
As time goes on and the Citizens of the West who are being dragged into this nonsense for no good reason suffer more and more every single day…there is a massive and widespread discontent brewing.
In many countries the standard of living is decreasing precipitously.
Great Britain is forecast to go into recession. Germany is deindustrializing to a certain extent. Hungary has stated participation in the Zelensky Drama has cost them hundreds of billions – yes, that’s BILLIONS.
Meanwhile, concerning the Ukrainian refugees there is a restlessness in the air.
Did you know in the Czech Republic the government is running paid advertisements to reassure the population Ukrainian refugees are not taking their employment?
While that may be an outlier, it is indicative of something coming which could prove very ugly indeed.
The Rest
At the same time more and more people around the world are looking to jump ship from this sinking dinghy there are others who appear to be reconsidering their commitments to neutrality.
India and other nations are beginning to take advantage of lucrative oil deals or making arrangements to circumvent the payment processers which the Western governments unwisely chose to decouple from Russia.
Then is the Big Boy in the Global Neighborhood – China. It seems Beijing may soon provide weapons to the Kremlin.
“But, Somerset, why? Why, oh why, would they do so?”
Well, primarily because China may finally be figuring out if Russia falls they are next on the hit-list of the “Rules-Based Order”. Perchance, they see a good opportunity to make money while testing out the latest hardware. Or, maybe they just don’t like being bullied by the sort Antony Blinken represents when he whines, “You Chinese better not even be thinking about sending weapons to Russia…or else!”
I’m not sure how one says, “Or else, what?” in Chinese but I’m fairly sure it’s been uttered by Xi recently.
Election Season
Incidentally, there is the minor issue of Temporal Reality to deal with in the matter.
That is to say, Russian time is different than Washington time and it has nothing to do with your clock.
Let’s begin with the basics – there is an American election next year. There is also a British election which must take place before January 24, 2025, but will likely be in the summer or fall of 2024. Germany must have an election on or before October 26, 2025.
These are all the places where Citizens are suffering the most to lavish Rajah Vlodomor with wealth. My suspicion is following a year and a half of deprivation many won’t be eager to keep the powers-that-be…well, in power.
Self Interest
As support for Ukraine takes a nosedive – and it is, despite what you hear from the Controlled Media – many of these “sacred obligation” types who are in office now will be reconsidering their faith.
True, in Russia there is a Presidential election scheduled for March 2024…but there are differences.
No one in the U.K. thinks the Ukraine Conflict is an existential crisis. Few in the U.S. have close familial relations in the zone of fighting. Almost nary a German thinks if Kiev loses it will radically alter the trajectory of their national ideology.
Not so, Russia. Putin has far less to fear from popular rebellion than do his opponents abroad.
Lastly is the overall appreciation of sacrifice. If McDonald’s disappeared from the American landscape Washington would be on fire before nightfall. In Russia when they took it away no one much cared. The same with Starbuck’s…and Victoria’s Secret…and a million other brands.
Accept that as anecdotal if you wish, but it says something about who can endure longer than the other.
Crimea
Importantly, the conditions to even begin talking about any kind of ceasefire or truce or peace keep getting more idiotic by the day.
King Zelensky continues to insist not only should he be allowed to relentlessly kill ethnic Russian civilians in the Donbass in perpetuity, he also claims that Crimea – Ukrainian for 30 years and Russian for 300 years – should be returned to him…despite a free and fair Popular Referendum in which the actual inhabitants of Crimea stated they would prefer to not be bombed and to join Russia for protection.
As if this stupidity were not enough to convince you King Cocaine was riding high again there is the latest nonsense – “Reparations”.
Now “reparations” as a general theme belongs in a comedy at best and horror show at worst. It’s reductive, it’s collectively punitive and from Versailles to South Africa it’s never once worked.
Yet even more astounding to me is these Zelensky types never pause in their Righteous Indignation to consider the alternative view.
That is to say, if the choice for Russia becomes: A) surrender in Ukraine and also pay in perpetuity to Ukrainians, or B) keep battling since it’s a fight to the death…by what logical reason would anyone in Russia actually agree to come to terms?
Reasonable parties might carve the country and leave it at that for the sake of peace…but if the deal includes a clause to bankrupt Moscow what possible incentive is there to ever quit?
Why not simply grind it out until the army reaches the river then offer civilians who want to depart a safe passage and everyone else gets to become a Russian Citizen?
Negotiating
Everyone – by which I mean everyone bought and paid for – agrees the Ukraine Conflict will end with a treaty.
Sean (alleged Steroid Tweaker and Bestie of Zelensky) Penn said it. Multiple American officials have said it. An assortment of NATO Generals have said it.
“All conflicts end at the negotiating table.”
Really? Do I live in an alternate-reality?
At least, not when Russian President Putin is characterized – that is, caricatured – as “pure evil” and Russian soldiers are told they are all “war criminals” even as Russian civilians are informed they must pay “reparations” until they are in a state of nationwide bustitude.
I would say most of the mentioned would politely decline being talked into their own demise.
Gather around, Fam….here’s the facts you won’t hear on the Idiot Tube:
None of this ends “at the negotiating table” this year - it ends at the Dnipro in the two or three to come.
Guy Somerset writes from somewhere in America