I have a confession to make…
I love Poles.
I love Lord Jim…by Pole Joseph Conrad.
I love the Polonaise…by Pole Frederick Chopin.
I love adorable Pole Izabella Miko…or at least the Coyote Ugly version of her before she got old and began freezing her eggs and incidentally if you are reading this Izzy, I’m prepared to get right to work.
Ahem.
In any event, being of Russian blood, I still must admit I love Poles…that is, unless you get too many of them together…in which case you get something truly dreadful…
Poland.
Because the sad state of affairs is basically Poles are like sugar on your breakfast cereal…a little goes a long way.
You get too many Poles in one place you wind up with the Danzig Corridor in 1936 or Ukraine in 2022 and beyond.
For some reason – probably because they have nation-envy for more important countries – whenever you have a grouping of Poles congregating together they like to start trouble.
In regard to Russia this is annoying but in regard to Ukraine it is downright genocidal.
While all the world is looking the other way concerning the massive armaments transfer to Ukraine something which has gone basically unnoticed is the incredible militancy of Poland itself.
During the past year Warsaw has signed contracts to purchase nearly 1,000 tanks made by South Korea. In comparison, there are only around 2,000 Leopard 2 tanks in all of Europe; the most ubiquitous model.
Poland is likewise buying another 600 pieces of artillery.
Add to this an additional few dozen fighter jets.
To what end is this belligerency intended?
One cannot chose but consider.
Coupled with the extreme accelerationism of the Polish military machine is the reckless political speech arising from the government.
When Germany tried desperately to forestall an expansion of the Ukraine Conflict it was Poland alone which claimed it would nullify existing contracts and ignore the intellectual property rights of Berlin by unilaterally transferring offensive hardware to Kiev.
Time and time again the administration in Warsaw has called for widening the hostilities – much as they did in the Second World War – to include non-belligerents in a fight which is not properly their own.
There hardly seems a week that has passed without some Polish remark to escalate matters.
Here is the juncture at which some speculation is called for – even if based entirely on facts.
First, while Poland began as a generous helper to the refugees from Ukraine by the end of last year its government announced it would commence charging these very same impoverished Ukrainians for both food and shelter in the country.
Second, by early this year figures such as Retired Polish General Waldemar Skrzypczak had begun to call for apprehending Ukrainian male refugees and sending them to fight against Russians. In fact, this extremism was such that it was not offered as a choice but forcible militarized deportation.
Third, there are several instances of Polish forces either fighting or advising fighting in Ukraine. By the end of last year the Polish parliament passed a law to grant amnesty to Poles who had been fighting as far back as 2014 in Ukraine.
Fourth, the military is training a foreign army. Polish General Piotr Trytek has been tasked with martialing Ukrainian soldiers since last year in order to fit them for combat against Russian forces. There are as many as 15,000 troops being instructed by this man with experience in Iraq and Afghanistan wars.
Fifth, the President of Poland Andrezj Duda has repeatedly slurred Russian President Vladimir Putin as “tyrant” and “colonist” during his speeches. Duda has further gone on to say that the intention of Russians is to “enslave” all Ukrainians.
Here we must look to history as our guide.
It is another little understood reality that Ukraine was a part of Poland for longer even than it was a part of Russia throughout the ages.
Thus, to no small degree the Poles see Ukraine not as an independent nation but as part and parcel of the “historic” Polish territory itself.
What better way to “retake” those lands than to encourage the Ukrainians to fight a conflict they cannot possibly win? How better to strip Ukraine of its men than to send them off as sacrifices for a Poland which covets those regions nearest its borders? When more advantageous a time to liquidate the Ukrainians then when whipping them into a frenzy to kill their natural allies?
After these tens of thousands of deluded Ukrainian men have been slaughtered Poland will be free to move into the vacant lands to resume the Greater Poland Project.
Why else to build the vast military array?
Poland is already a part of NATO. Poland has no rational threat of being “invaded” by Russia. Poland has no other enemies in the vicinity.
Yet if the Poles needed to occupy and pacify a swath of terrain they regard as historically Poland…well, in that circumstance a gigantic new armaments capacity might be in order.
Obviously, it is not conclusive this is the aim.
We can only make informed conjectures based on observable facts:
Who benefits from these actions?
Russia…which has an army ten times the strength of Ukraine and seeks only to stabilize very limited ethnically Russian enclaves to the far east?
Or Poland…which makes every indication it seeks to reestablish its historical boundaries which include nearly all of modern Ukraine once it has been cleared of the inconvenient Ukrainian males which currently occupy it?
Politics is all about probability, and one of these is as likely as that I and Miss Miko will be spending this evening together.
Guy Somerset writes from somewhere in America