Two days ago, Ruben Vardanyan, who literally only recently has appointed himself "in charge of Karabakh", addressed his "compatriots" and frightened them with a humanitarian catastrophe and an allegedly impending genocide.
Two years ago, I already entered into a dispute in absentia with Ruben Vardanyan, who called himself a Russian businessman in those days.
Let me remind you that then, in the first days of the 44-day war, he turned to the Russians with an ultimatum demand to unconditionally support the Armenians.
I have now re-read our discussion. Ready to stand by every word. Nothing has changed in my views.
But little has changed in Vardanyan's views either.
Neither the defeat of the Armenian forces in the war, nor the restoration by Azerbaijan of its sovereignty over almost all of its lands, nor a fundamental change in the balance of power and the situation in the region, that is, everything that I promised him in October 2020 in advance, affected them. Does he not understand anything?
No, he understands, but he still plans to reverse the course of history, plans to review the results of the war and cancel the November 10 ceasefire statement signed by the three leaders, which he now calls nothing more than a "scrap of paper”.
Not only hopes, he is already actively acting.
Now he is not a representative of public opinion, and not even a Russian, he is now the Leader of Karabakh. True, self-proclaimed, but according to the current constitution of Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh does not exist.
Detail — in order to receive his new appointment , he has renouced the citizenship of the Russian Federation.
Really! What can you expect in Russia besides sanctions? It would be honest to refuse the money earned in Russia, but his logic is iron — the country is not mine, the people are alien to me, but the money is my money.
Citizenship of Armenia (albeit in the absence of other citizenship) is a condition for obtaining public positions in Armenia, and even in the so-imposed Artsakh.
Here I would give advice to Armenian officials — to check whether Vardanyan has completed the process of renouncing Russian citizenship. The whole process took him only a few weeks instead of the usual six months. And if it turns out that he has not yet completely left the citizenship of Russia, then all his actions in official posts are invalid.
Although here I am ready to calm down. In fact, ALL of his actions in the so-called "Artsakh" are illegal. This is the territory of Azerbaijan, and in Baku the appointment of Vardanyan as a "Minister of State” is not recognized, which means that he will not be able to participate in any negotiations on behalf of the Karabakh Armenians.
So, well, why did he show up there? This step looks so strange that some has immediately began to zealously look for a "second bottom” in it.
Those who searched immediately announced that they had found it. It turns out that Vardanyan is gaining points in Karabakh in order to challenge Pashinyan in Yerevan very soon, and that this is, in fact, "Putin's plan."
I do not believe the version of the "Putin's plan", most likely, all these rumors come from Vardanyan himself. And no matter what Vardanyan himself declares, no matter what and to whom he swears, this is all his own project, it is a monument to his narcissism and pride. And it was not Putin who sent him there, but the Moscow Armenian diaspora. Powerful and cunning. And with a specific task.
Well, he spreads rumors about himself as a "Putin's project” just to fill his own worth and write off his inevitable future jambs to "higher interests”.
Jambs and cones are already knocking on the window.
Income in politics brings success, not shares, but influence.
But in order to capitalize on influence, you must first have it. In the meantime, Vardanyan took up the capitalization of the traditional industry. He has just been appointed, and is already trying to take control of the gold mining in Karabakh, that is, to get a share in the ongoing plunder of the bowels of Azerbaijan by the Karabakh Armenians.
There are a lot of different reports in the press about a series of scandalous events that followed the attempt of Azerbaijani representatives to visit the gold mines near the village of Gulyatag, where they were not allowed in, and this is important — in the presence of Vardanyan — young people dressed in civilian clothes did not let them in. And our Russian peacekeepers stood nearby and did not interfere.
Events have been on the rise for several days, and I'm not going to analyze them here in detail. I can only say that Vardanyan is consistently working to create a feeling of a besieged fortress among the Karabakh Armenians. He speaks directly about the besieged Leningrad, but, rather, he wants to create a feeling in Karabakh of an ancient Israeli Mossad fortress.
I must say right away that there is no threat of a humanitarian catastrophe. Azerbaijan will never abandon its citizens. And there is no need to talk about the threat of genocide. If there were such plans — to clear Karabakh from Armenians, then there were conditions for this. Two years ago. But there was no such goal then, nor it is now.
But two points interest me most of all — Vardanyan's goals and the role of Russian peacekeepers.
And here, any unbiased observer will immediately see that the self-proclaimed "Minister of State" from the very beginning acts as the most notorious provocateur, and within the framework of these provocations, he assigns a special role to Russian peacekeepers, trying through them to draw all the parties who signed the Statement of November 10, 2020 into a new round of showdowns, and maybe conflict. The goal is still the same — to reverse the settlement process that the three leaders launched two years ago.
The fact that Vardanyan disrupted the visit of the Azerbaijani representatives to the gold mines lends itself to a logical explanation.
But then another question arises, to which I do not yet have an answer. And he is a hundred times more serious.
Two years ago, Vardanyan directly addressed the Russian military with a demand to provide immediate and effective support to the Armenians, hoping to hide from the war behind the backs of Russian soldiers. Then I assessed this appeal as a call to rebellion against the Supreme Commander.
But today these calls came to my mind in connection with the actions, or rather the inaction, of the Russian peacekeepers. They were also near the mines, but did not ensure the fulfillment of their pre-agreed legal mission by the Azerbaijani representatives. There are even publications that claim that they interfered with this mission.
I am far from thinking that in 2022 "informal" relations between Armenian "leaders" and Russian commanders are possible. Thirty years ago, as they say, it happened, but 30 years have passed.
I am sure that Vardanyan understands that it is impossible to turn Russian peacekeepers into his pocket army, that this time it will not be possible to hide behind the backs of Russian soldiers. And if he does not fully understand, then he will be corrected. I believe that the recent events were the reason for the telephone conversations on December 12 between Vladimir Putin, first with I. Aliyev, and then with N. Pashinyan.
Apart from Vardanyan, no one now wants to create a situation in which someone will begin to consider the peacekeepers not as a condition, but as an obstacle to the settlement. After all, only two and a half years remain before the extension or non-extension of their mandate, even less.
But solely in his own interests, earning points for himself, Vardanyan is now jumping out of his skin, trying to push the armed forces of Azerbaijan against the Russian peacekeepers.
In conclusion.
Two years ago, I reacted to the words of a man who could be called a social activist. He had ideas and plans. Adventurous, even scary, if you think about it.
Today I am reacting to the actions of the same man, but he now calls himself a statesman.
His actions are potentially more terrifying than the plans of a public figure. Moreover, as you can already see with the naked eye, he is drawing Russian peacekeepers into the conflict with a consistent well-thought-out series of provocations. And then Russia will also be engaged.
Russia for him, and for Pashinyan, is a waste material. Landmarks are now different — Macron, Biden. Here are his new allies.
And what they want to achieve in the South Caucasus became clear when Macron intervened and disrupted the ready-made agreement on a transport corridor that is beneficial to everyone, and Armenia, above all.
Macron's course is clear — to undermine the tripartite agreements of November 2020, and then revise them. The Armenians, including Vardanyan, hope that in their favor.
It's time to stop him.
Who will do it?
Only co-signatories of the Statement from 10 November. They do not have the right to allow one adventurer to play the scenario of breaking the November 2020 agreements like clockwork.
At the same time, Pashinyan, I believe, no longer counts. He is now working with redoubled energy for his new "real" owners.
Two years ago, in sports terms, he threw a towel into the ring. Now he would even be glad if someone else delivered him from the shame of those days.
Now the main thing is to avoid sudden steps. I know they are in the agenda. But I am sure that the common task of the responsibility of people is to ensure that the agreements of November 10, 2020 stand.
They will stand. Pledge in the state wisdom of V.V. Putin and I. Aliyev.
Two years ago, in November, Azerbaijan could complete the liberation of its territory. But on common sense, they didn't. State interests won over military excitement. Can do it now. Maybe, but I don't think they will. For the same reasons.
And it is time for the President of Russia to remember his words that his signature under the document is the main guarantee of the implementation of the agreements. It is trough. Especially now, when somebody is trying to use Russian troops "blindly".
Life itself will save us from provocateurs.
Very soon.
Even the Armenians of Karabakh do not need Vardanyan. He will not be able to solve their problems, he will not want to take care of them, and he will bring a lot of problems with his adventures. And then he runs away. The first part, that is, to create problems out of the blue, he completed. But he hasn't run yet.
Further it will only get worse. So, it would be better, more correct, more honest for him to leave. Right now.
And all reasonable people in the region and beyond must now set themselves three tasks. First, to prevent bloodshed. including accidental. Secondly, to stop all attempts of provocations, primarily by third forces. And, finally, analyze for yourself all the consequences of a hypothetical possibility of the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers.