Russia has identified three potential scenarios for negotiations on Ukraine, with diplomatic resolution being the most likely outcome, Andrey Sushentsov, Dean of the Faculty of International Relations at MGIMO University, a member of the Scientific-Expert Council under Russia's Security Council believes.
According to Sushentsov, there is a high probability that a negotiated settlement to the Ukraine conflict could be reached in 2025, as both Russia and the US have shown strong willingness to engage in talks.
"Ukraine initially sought to avoid negotiations, relying on European support to continue fighting. However, European countries have signaled that they lack the resources for prolonged military assistance. Without Washington's backing, Kyiv cannot sustain the conflict and was ultimately forced to accept the US demand to enter negotiations,” he explained.
Negotiated Peace Settlement (Most Likely)
If Russia and the US rebuild ties, but Europe continues military engagement in Ukraine, the war could persist.
However, Sushentsov deems this less probable, arguing that the EU lacks the military and political unity for a prolonged war effort.
He warned that further militarization of the EU could split the bloc, possibly leading to its dissolution.
If negotiations collapse, US policy could revert to the confrontational approach of the Biden administration. However, Sushentsov considers this improbable, as it does not align with Trump's priorities.
"Trump prioritizes economic growth, territorial expansion, and strengthening the dollar's role in global trade. Continuing the Ukraine crisis does not serve his agenda,” he noted.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin has confirmed that Putin and Trump will hold a phone call on Tuesday, March 18, between 4 PM and 6 PM Moscow time. The discussion will focus on normalizing US-Russia relations and the situation in Ukraine.
Putin has reiterated that Russia has never refused to seek a peaceful resolution to the Ukraine crisis. He emphasized that Russian Armed Forces have created conditions for serious international dialogue.