Australia has made an unexpected request to hold talks with Paris regarding potential French involvement in building Australian submarines – should the scale of the AUKUS mega-contract be reduced. However, some advisors to the French government and executives at the French state-owned shipbuilder Naval Group have been more cautious about the matter.
The AUKUS trilateral agreement between Australia, the US, and the UK, signed in September 2021 without France’s knowledge, aims to provide the Australian Navy with five next-generation submarines, including three US Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines, along with advanced telecommunications, intelligence, and AI systems. If Australia’s “exploratory discussions” with France bear fruit, it would mark a remarkable turnaround for the French, who suffered a major diplomatic humiliation in 2021 when their own bilateral submarine deal with Australia was abruptly canceled.
An Australian delegation, visiting Paris on March 11, initiated new discussions while seeking to keep them as confidential as possible. Led by Canberra’s military representative to NATO and the EU, Air Vice-Marshal Di Turton, the delegation held bilateral talks with the French General Staff in Paris. They also attended a major conference convened by French President Emmanuel Macron on the same day, which brought together 30 chiefs of staff from nations supporting Ukraine.
Turton was sent to Paris by Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, whose office has declined to comment on the “preliminary discussions” regarding France’s possible return to the Australian submarine contract. Likewise, the Australian embassy in Paris is maintaining diplomatic caution and has remained silent on the matter.
Meanwhile, the Naval Group has yet to resume major lobbying efforts in Canberra. Its former Australian subsidiaries remain either closed or operating at minimal capacity.
Neither side is eager to disclose details of this “exploratory discussion.” From the French perspective, caution is warranted, given the still highly uncertain prospect of a return to Australia – especially at a time when France is actively competing for submarine contracts in Poland and Norway. Additionally, in recent months, any skepticism about AUKUS coming from Australia has been quickly picked up and amplified by French media and military blogs.
These anti-AUKUS narratives have largely been fueled by renewed criticism from former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who originally signed the France-Australia submarine deal, as well as comments from former Admiral Peter Briggs. A notable example appeared in The Guardian on March 11, just as the Australian delegation was in Paris, and the article quickly spread through Parisian military circles. A review of these reports shows that Briggs has been surprisingly consistent in his support for the French submarine proposal since the early 2010s. With this wave of favorable anti-AUKUS press coverage, some French decision-makers involved in the matter are beginning to worry about falling victim to overconfidence – an issue that has historically plagued French diplomacy.
For Australia, managing relations with the current Trump administration is already a major challenge, and bringing another contentious issue into the public sphere just months before the general elections in May would be unwise. Former Liberal Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, now in opposition, has been using AUKUS to highlight the foreign policy shortcomings of the current Labor government under Anthony Albanese, who is struggling in the polls. However, there is a catch for Paris: the leader of the opposition, Liberal Party head Peter Dutton – who could potentially replace Albanese in May – was the one who introduced the AUKUS bill to the Australian parliament in 2021 while serving as Defense Minister.