Half-Isolated Saakashvili Harbors Aggressive Plans Against Russia Still
Such a state of affairs, when Saakashvili holds power in Georgia, is good for Russia, no matter how cynical it may sound. He is a half-isolated politician. He was allowed to keep his position, but only a few politicians communicate with him or have meetings with him. Everyone is perfectly aware of the fact that it was him who started the war. All of his attempts to accuse Russia of the war are useless. If there were another politician in his place, he would no longer be such a notorious figure and would have more opportunities to cooperate with the West.
Pravda.Ru: What do you think about the development of Russia's relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia?
Zatulin: In spite of a number of positive factors, I'd like to say that the recent year has revealed many problems connected with these two republics, especially South Ossetia. The latter is not a self-sufficient state formation and can not exist without Russia's economic participation. Russia assigned considerable funds for the recreation and the development of South Ossetia. The recreation process raises serious concerns with Russia. Russian officials may very often find no understanding with their South Ossetian colleagues.
We are now going through the "test of peace" in the relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia's further position in the Caucasus depends on how this test is going to end. We both need only a positive outcome. Both Abkhazia and South Ossetia have succeeded politically and militarily: 20 years of independent existence mean a lot. All they have to do now is to become independent economically.
Pravda.Ru: You were one of the few experts, who predicted the Caucasian war. Are there any prerequisites for another Georgian aggression ?
Zatulin: As for Georgia's possible aggression, I'll say that there is no fact to confirm right now that Saakashvili is ready for another war. However, some of his actions may mean that he can provoke it.
Let's take, for example, Georgia's recent detention of a Ukrainian vessel in Abkhazian waters. The vessel was arrested, and its crew was jailed. Such things never happen even in such conflict-prone countries as Cyprus or Taiwan. What if the Abkhazian military respond with seizing a Georgian vessel? No one can guarantee here that such adventurous actions will not trigger another war.
Sergey Balmasov
Pravda.Ru
