Will Armenia and Turkey Shake Hands Ever?

“The main difficulty in the relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia is the Karabakh issue. The war ended in 1994, and since then Nagorno-Karabakh issue has been a topic of negotiation between the parties with the mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chaired by Russia, USA and France. Negotiations are difficult, because the starting positions of Armenia and Azerbaijan were diametrically opposed. Baku believes that Nagorno-Karabakh should belong to Azerbaijan, as it was before the Soviet collapse and the ensuing war.

Yerevan is convinced that Nagorno-Karabakh is an independent state, where the Armenian population that constitutes the majority has a right for self-determination. Despite all the difficulties, both the conflicting parties and mediators see an advance in the settlement of the issue. It is worth emphasizing that Russia does not link the Karabakh issue to the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations.

If these two separate difficult processes are brought together, there will be a chaos which will make it harder for Armenia and Turkey, and Armenia and Azerbaijan to find a mutually acceptable solution. In any case, Baku is not interested in opening the Armenian-Turkish border before the problem of Nagorno-Karabakh is solved.

Ankara takes this approach into account, both because the inner opposition to normalization of relations is felt, and because the differences with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh would be fraught with the loss of Turkish influence in Azerbaijan and, consequently, in the South Caucasus as a whole. Of course, there is a strong pressure on Turkey from the U.S. in favor of ratification of the protocols and normalization of relations with Armenia. But honestly speaking, the impact of American influence in Turkey declined markedly compared to the recent past.”

“When can we expect implementation of the agreements?”

“Ratification of the already signed Armenian-Turkish protocols has grown into a problem whose solution is nowhere to be seen. Compared to the situation in 2009, the Armenian-Turkish relations have soured. In Turkey, the opposition to ratification of the protocols has proved so strong that in fact this issue has lost relevance.

In Armenia, where there is also the opposition to the adoption of these documents, the Government relies on the parliamentary majority, which would be inclined to ratify the protocol, if Turkey did the same. Yerevan, understandably, did not want and does not want to make a blank shot. The protocols ratified by only one party would make no sense. In principle, the question of normalization of the Armenian-Turkish relations remains on the agenda, and the contacts between the parties take place. But there is no diplomatic relations, and the Armenian-Turkish border remains closed. However, the objective interest of both parties in the normal relations is obvious.

“It seems that Turkey needs such relations with Armenia?”

“Everybody needs them. Turkey needs them to make it easier to solve the problem of entry into the EU and, which is important, to improve the economy of its underdeveloped north-eastern regions. Armenia needs them to emerge from the transport semi-isolation it finds itself in now, and remove the hostility from the powerful southern neighbor.

Over time, Azerbaijan would benefit from the normalization of Armenian-Turkish relations. Azerbaijan, rich in natural resources, would benefit from the stability in the region, both in trade and economic terms, and politically. Russia also needs stability in the South Caucasus, as well as in the Caucasus in general. And it would be in everybody’s interest to ease the tension in the region. Armenian-Turkish settlement could significantly contribute to this.”

Sergei Balmasov
Pravda.Ru