Like a saga of Harry Potter, each episode seems to get darker and darker. Yes, there will be a light, there always is, some where down that road, but we have yet to even reach midnight, to yet hope for the light of dawn. In truth, we are still only in the late late evening and midnight, the true gloom is still off, though approaching quickly. Brace yourselves, brothers and sisters, because the roller coaster of 2011 is the biggest one yet but far from the last one.
This year is not going to be easy for us. In part, we will suffer several plagues: one, the economic collapse of China will severally lower commodity prices. This will of course hit our government budget hard, which draws most of its taxes off of oil and gas. This in turn will have a positive long term effect: the forced streamlining of the government. The defense fund is all but gone, so without major reserves, the government will have to continue with the layoffs of chenovniks, bureaucrats. Already scheduled for the ax, 200k, over the next 1.5 years, or 20% of the federal government work force, will probably grow to 30 or 40%. Many functions done by a warm body can and will be done by a computer. This and an new emphasis on business will remove several more layers of hands who want their share for doing nothing more than putting a stamp on a paper....and good riddance to the vast majority of them.
We will also face more civil unrest due to the central Asians, here illegally and to other groups. Further, the ultra-nationalists, without realizing it, are playing the CIA's hand. There will be more disruptions and riots, however, the situation will settle out. The government will compromise, making expulsion of illegals a much higher priority and while the police will still be corrupt, they will be much more fearful, as no police chief can afford a nationalist riot if he wants his pension.
Terrorism will continue on its present, CIA/MI6/Saudi funded course. That is, four times higher than that of 2009. There will be several very bloody incidents. Reprisals will escalate also, not only from Federal officials but from various other groups, such as monarchists and cossacks. Many Muslims will continue converting to Christ, which will also center more of the attacks into the neighborhoods of these converts. Of course, this will continue to push more to Christ.
Russia will also see new opportunity on the Korean peninsula to woo a unified Korea, and with China in disarray, to push out the US and become Korea's alternative to Japan or China, both traditional enemies as well as partners. Russia will also become the primary arms dealer to Korea, as well as signing deals for gas and oil, to power the rebuilding of Korea and its industrial expansion.
Russia will also be engaged in first a political and then a brief military standoff in the Black Sea with the Turks. Though a NATO ally, NATO will not step in, as two other NATO allies (Greece and Bulgaria) will also be participating. Russian participation will primarily be in the form of Navel and Air assets and some raids by marines, on Turkish coastal regions. The aftermath will be a stronger Russian presence in the Balkans, particularly with Greece and Serbia firmly in the Russian sphere and Bulgaria sliding in the same direction.
I also give us a 1 in 3 chance of having Georgia the Sequel. Maybe this time President Medvedev will not stop until he takes Tbilisi?
United States (aka Big North Korea)
Can we say roller coaster at the police state park? Yup, the US economy is about to take its next plunge and this one is going alllll the waaaaay down, folks. The first thing to fully melt down will be the collapse of the municipal bond market, which in the past 4 weeks has already seen its foundation rumbling and shaking. No this will not be pretty. We are talking bread lines, wiped out cities, mass rioting and of course a total police force clamp down. The country with the most people in jail and the most laws on the books to make sure those jails are not empty is about to expand that little industry five fold.
Yes, the work camps will be churning with Chinese style factory slaves, basically, if you are discontent and protest or to poor to pay the ever growing and multiplying taxes and fines, you will be put to productive labour, what other nations might call slave labour, but what nations like China, N.Korea and soon the USA, will call "its human advantage".
At the same time, the total disintegration of the Mexican state will fully spill over into the border regions of the USA, especially into Texas. Murder rates already extremely high will only grow. When Texas moves to close its borders, the Federal American government will ban them and will instead demand that the land is off limits to citizens. That along with the attempted seizure of the right to control air quality, and thus industry and economics, something the US Federals have threated that if they do not get control of, they will close the Texas economy, will finally push this former republic to become its own Republic, again.