The Balkanization of North America

ROT, already with well over 36% of the population demanding independence, is already on the brink of becoming a reality. The nation of 26 million, will have one of the strongest economies and militaries in the world and its loss will be the final blow that will splinter the rest of the union of the US. ROT, on its way out, will reclaim its historic territories of Oklahoma. Texas will become the leader of technology industry in the successor states and will be the fifth largest oil producer and one of the largest producers of farm goods and meat animals.

As a nation, ROT will find itself closely allied to the Confederate States of America (CSA) and at with border skirmishes at best and war at worst with Republica Del Norte. Alliance with the CSA should help it defend itself from the rump US/Canada.

Confederate States of America

It was always said that the South shall rise again, and this will be its moment. Culturally and politically distinct from their northern overlords, the CSA has been a nation occupied for 145 years. This time around, no longer dependent on cotton and farm goods, and having a large industrial base, the Confederacy, minus Texas and the Florida Keyes but with the states of Maryland, Kansas, Kentucky and Missouri, and allied to Texas, it will easily be able to withhold the weakened and splintered rump US/Canada.

As a government, it will be a weak federal organ, closer to the original American constitution. It will reach out to the EU for further trade and assistance. Russia will also see fit to aid and trade with the splinter state.

Cuban Commonwealth

The post Castro/Raul Cuba will be an expansionist power. With a military trained by Russia and a splintering America to the north, Cuba will take the opportunity to bring the various small island nations of the northern/central Caribbean into borders. At the same time, having effectively and completely colonized the Florida Keyes, Cuba will move to annex the territory. Since this will cause problems to the CSA, Cuba will find close allies in the form of the rump US/Canada and that of Republica Del Norta.

New England Commonwealth

Consisting of Maine, Vermont, New Hampshire, and much of upstate New York, as well as Novo Scotia, Newfoundland, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward’s Island. These economies and societies are much closer tied to each other than to their present nations. They will succeed because the Rump US/Canada will be to weak to wage war on them without being threatened by their allies, the CSA and ROT. They will also seek close economic support with Quebec and the EU, as well as defense pacts.

Republic of Quebec

As the French have always chaffed under English rule, they will take the opportunity to break out and will seek a close relationship with the EU and with the neighboring New England Commonwealth, relying on both for defense from the ever aggressive Rump USA/Canadian police state. Quebec may even petition to join the EU.

US Federal Government + Canada (Rump USA/Canada)

The remains of America will move quickly to absorb the weakened but oil rich rump Canada. Still reeling from its territorial losses, Canada will offer little resistance. As a nation, the USA/Canada will be a strict centralized police state, with military governors ruling over the elected state governors and control of population movement, under war powers acts, on the level of the former East Germany.

Its economy will still be strong but it will be a shadow, as will its military, of its former self. As such, it will be locked in territorial disputes with all of its neighbors and will be viewed as a rogue state by larger countries, such as the EU, Russia, Japan, China and so on.

Over all, the North American continent will be one of a sea of storms, with a few relative quiet spots, such as the Republic of Texas and the Republic of Alaska, though even those will be hard pressed to avoid the various territorial wars that will rage for decades until the survivors of the balkanization grow tired of fighting and comfortable in their own new borders.

Stanislav Mishin

The article has been reprinted with the kind permission from the author and originally appears on his blog Mat Rodina